UPDATED 7:15 ET

STOCKS - European stocks were little changed after their first weekly drop since January, as heightened deal activity outweighed data showing that Chinese exports unexpectedly slumped. U.S. stock-index futures were little changed and Asian shares fell.

BONDS – Treasuries were little changed as the biggest decline in Chinese exports in two years drove demand for the safety of U.S. debt.

COMMODITIES – Crude Oil fell for the first time in three days after exports from China unexpectedly shrank, stoking speculation that the world’s second-largest oil consumer may miss economic growth targets.

CURRENCIES – The Australian dollar fell for a second day against the U.S. currency after China reported the biggest trade deficit in two years, cooling demand for higher- yielding assets.

ECONOMIC DATA - GBP MPC Member Bean Speaks at 10:15, AUD NAB Business Confidence at 20:30 ET, JPY Monetary Policy Statement *tentative.

UPDATED 7:05 ET

STOCKS – European stocks fell, heading for their first weekly decline since January, as a gauge of health-care companies dropped, while investors awaited a U.S. employment report. U.S. index futures fluctuated, while Asian shares advanced.

BONDS – Treasuries were set for the steepest weekly decline this year amid speculation a U.S. jobs report today will strengthen the case for the Federal Reserve to push ahead with tapering its monetary stimulus program.

COMMODITIES – Corn jumped to a six-month high and was poised for a bull market as demand rose for exports from the U.S., the top shipper, amid tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

CURRENCIES – Stepping up verbal intervention may be the Reserve Bank of Australia’s only option to curb the Aussie as strengthening economic data and a neutral policy stance drive the currency toward a three-month high.

ECONOMIC DATA – US Non-Farm Employment Change, Trade Balance, CAD Unemployment Rate due at 8:30, FOMC Member Dudley Speaks at 12 noon ET.

UPDATED 6:55 ET

STOCKS – European stocks rose, rebounding from their biggest loss in more than five weeks, as investors speculated that the military standoff in Ukraine will not lead to war. U.S. index futures and Asian shares also climbed.

BONDS – Treasuries fell, retreating with their counterparts from developed nations, as signs the crisis in Ukraine is easing reduced demand for haven assets.

COMMODITIES – Crude Oil dropped from the highest price since September amid speculation that heightened tension between Russia and Ukraine is unlikely to result in a disruption to oil supplies.

CURRENCIES – The Australian dollar weakened against most of its 16 major peers after the Reserve Bank said the exchange rate remains high following a decision to keep borrowing costs at a record low today.

ECONOMIC DATA – AUD GDP q/q due at 19:30 ET.

From the Desk of Joe Rios

Is volatility knocking at the door? Natural Gas continued to be the attention grabber during last week’s trading sessions with an impressive -25% drop. In the Forex market the US Dollar lost ground to most currencies. Soybeans led commodities posting a 4% gain. Stock indices closed the week strong with the Russell 2000 gaining 1.2%, Dow Jones Industrial Average 1.5%, S&P 500 1.4% and Nasdaq 1.0%. However I am taking notice that many of the stocks that led the recent rally in February closed the week with significant losses. Friday was the last day of the month, therefore perhaps it was “window dressing” related activities from the mutual funds and professional money managers. It might have been simple profit-taking or maybe something deeper that may still be under the surface. In the week ahead I will pay special attention to the stock market’s internal dynamics to determine whether it was due to month end profit-taking or the start of a new trend. I will also pay attention to further developments in the escalating conflict involving Russia and Ukraine. Rotation flows from emerging markets may also help to assess risk ON – OFF sentiment from a global perspective. The upcoming economic calendar can also add volatility to an already busy week.

The markets seem ready for aggressive price action, will you be ready? It will prove prudent to be prepared. Make sure you have your play book well thought out and remember, discipline should be at the core, from beginning to end.

Joe Rios
Chief Market Strategist
www.riosquant.com

Live Rooms and Events
Please take note of this week’s schedule at a glance including key economic reports that might have an impact on the markets. Live trading rooms and educational events are also listed with the appropriate links for gaining access. While some of the events are free, others are for members only. Let us know if you have an interest and we will provide you with all the pertinent information.

Contact Information for your Support Needs:
Amber Little, RQ Client Relations Manager
email: amber@riosquant.com
skype: alittlemobile
cellphone: 415.336.7272

Live Trading Rooms and Events:

The Trading Room TradeLAB – Global Trading with Quantitative Technologies
Monday through Friday beginning at 7:30 AM ET
https://www3.gotomeeting.com/register/256633886
RQ trade coaches include Edward Preston, Steve Schwartz and Joe Rios. Live demonstration of our pre-market quantitative analysis, real-time trading signals with RQ algorithmic technology, strategy performance review and Q&A session.

Rios Quant Trading Room en Español
https://www3.gotomeeting.com/register/929861486
Monday through Friday beginning at 7:30 AM ET
Únete a nuestro coach de trading, Xavier Carrero mientras lo guía por el sistema de trading algorítmico Rios Quant en un entorno de mercado en tiempo real. Él va a utilizar la tecnología de trading cuantitativo desarrollada por el Jefe de Estrategias, Joe Ríos. Xavier lo guiará por los mercados utilizando el único sistema de su tipo en el planeta.

Insider’s Quant (IQ) Room – Advanced Concepts with Joe Rios
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday beginning at 1:30 PM ET
Subscription Only!

The Trading Room EDU – Educational Workshop Covering the Rios Quant Trading Indicators
https://www3.gotomeeting.com/register/434440446
Tuesday beginning at 8:00 PM ET
Topic: What are the Benefits of Quant Trading?

The Trading Room EDU – Educational Workshop Covering the Rios Quant Trading Indicators
https://www3.gotomeeting.com/register/913307558
Wednesday beginning at 7:00 PM ET
Topic: Trailing Stops

MONDAY
Economic Data Release – Market Movers
GBP – Manufacturing PMI – 4:30 AM ET
USD – Personal Spending – 8:30 AM ET
EUR – ECB President Draghi Speaks – 9:00 AM ET
USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI – 10:00 AM ET
AUD – Building Approvals – 7:30 PM ET
AUD – RBA Rate Statement – 10:30 PM ET

The Trading Room TradeLAB

https://www3.gotomeeting.com/register/256633886

Beginning at 7:30 AM ET

Insider’s Quant (IQ) Room – Advanced Concepts with Joe Rios
Beginning at 1:30 PM ET

TUESDAY
Economic Data Release – Market Movers
GBP – Construction PMI – 4:30 AM ET
AUD – GDP – 7:30 PM ET

The Trading Room TradeLAB

https://www3.gotomeeting.com/register/256633886

Beginning at 7:30 AM ET

Insider’s Quant (IQ) Room – Advanced Concepts with Joe Rios
Beginning at 1:30 PM ET

The Trading Room EDU – Educational Workshop Covering the Rios Quant Trading Indicators

https://www3.gotomeeting.com/register/434440446

Beginning at 8:00 PM ET
Topic: What are the Benefits of Quant Trading?

WEDNESDAY
Economic Data Release – Market Movers
GBP – Services PMI – 4:30 AM ET
USD – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change – 8:15 AM ET
CAD – BOC Rate Statement – 10:00 AM ET
USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI – 10:00 AM ET
USD – Crude Oil Inventories – 10:30 AM ET
USD – Beige Book – 2:00 PM ET
AUD – Retail Sales and Trade Balance – 7:30 PM ET

The Trading Room TradeLAB

https://www3.gotomeeting.com/register/256633886

Beginning at 7:30 AM ET

Insider’s Quant (IQ) Room – Advanced Concepts with Joe Rios
Beginning at 1:30 PM ET

The Trading Room EDU – Educational Workshop Covering the Rios Quant Trading Indicators

https://www3.gotomeeting.com/register/913307558

Beginning at 7:00 PM ET
Topic: Trailing Stops

THURSDAY
Economic Data Release – Market Movers
GBP – Official Bank Rate – 7:00 AM ET
EUR – Minimum Bid Rate – 7:45 AM ET
USD – FOMC Member Dudley Speaks – 8:15 AM ET
CAD – Building Permits – 8:30 PM ET
EUR – ECB Press Conference – 8:30 AM ET
USD – Unemployment Claims – 8:30 AM ET
USD – Natural Gas Storage – 10:30 AM ET
AUD – RBA Gov. Stevens Speaks – 5:30 PM ET

The Trading Room TradeLAB

https://www3.gotomeeting.com/register/256633886

Beginning at 7:30 AM ET

FRIDAY
Economic Data Release – Market Movers
CAD – Unemployment Rate – 8:30 AM ET
USD – Non-Farm Employment Change – 8:30 AM ET

The Trading Room TradeLAB

https://www3.gotomeeting.com/register/256633886

Beginning at 7:30 AM ET

THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY
FUTURES, OPTIONS, AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE PRODUCTS

UPDATED 6:45 ET

STOCKS – European stocks declined the most in five weeks amid increasing geopolitical tension after Russia’s parliament authorized President Vladimir Putin to deploy troops in Ukraine. U.S. index futures and Asian shares also fell.

BONDS – Government bonds rose around the world after Russia seized control of Ukraine’s Black Sea region of Crimea, spurring demand for haven assets.

COMMODITIES – Most commodities advanced to the highest level in almost six months as escalating tension in Ukraine fueled concern that energy and agricultural supplies will be disrupted while increasing demand for gold as a haven.

CURRENCIES – The Japanese yen and the Swiss franc strengthened after Russia took control of Crimea, intensifying concern of a conflict with Ukraine’s new government and boosting demand for haven assets.

ECONOMIC DATA – US Personal Spending m/m due at 8:30, ECB President Draghi Speaks at 9:00, US ISM Manufacturing PMI due at 10:00, AUD Building Approvals 19:30, RBA Rate Statement at 22:30 ET.