Friday’s Labor Department Non-Farm Payrolls report disappointed with a collapse in the job market with only 38,000 jobs added in May against an expectation of 159,000. It has been described as the worst headline data since August 2011. Additionally, there were 59,000 fewer new jobs in March and April than had been previously estimated. The markets reacted fast, with gold surging 2.81% higher along with the US 30-year bond 1.79% while the US dollar plunged -1.76%. The US dollar’s fall erased much of its gains from the past few weeks. The S&P 500 fell at first but managed to reverse most of the losses, reflecting the lack of direction and mixed sentiment seen in the risk assets for the past few weeks. The market’s message was clear, both the disappointing data from the US employment data and the potential Brexit coming later in June, it is now doubtful the Fed will raise rates in June and July. As of Friday’s close, the Fed Fund futures market showed a drop in the implied probability of a June rate hike to -4% from 20% and for July, a drop from 60% to 35%.
This week’s economic calendar is light since we are entering the quiet period before the next FOMC meeting. Therefore, I will be focusing more on the technicals for trade set-ups.
Join us this week and experience the power of market intelligence. We will be show casing the new Einstein SmartBox automated trading system with cross-market relationships and correlations analytics.
Joe Rios – Founder, Rios Quantitative LLC
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