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The Week Ahead in the Global Financial Markets

From the desk of Joe Rios

Commodities were in the spotlight last week with Crude Oil finishing the week 8.6% higher in short covering mode. In the grain market Wheat also closed higher 4.9% followed by Corn 4.3%.  Conflict was evident In the metals market with Copper gaining 3.8% while Gold dropped -3.6%. Take special note of the correlation between Gold and Treasuries during the past few trading sessions. In the currency market the US Dollar was little changed -0.1% as most foreign currencies consolidated.  As illustrated on the chart(1) below Risk-ON sentiment dominated most of the week with rotation flows confirming the S&P 500 rising 3.4% and the US Treasury 10 Yr Note losing -1.8%.  The S&P 500 has been trading in a wide range with a significant rise in intra-day volatility since December. The chart(2) below will give you a glimpse of both, the rise in volatility and the range bound price action. Will the stock indices continue to trade in-the-box or will we see a break out-of-the box with further Risk-ON rotation flows in the week ahead? My main focus on the first day of trade for the week will be on the correlation between the bond and stock markets. As you can see from the chart(1) below the US Treasuries sold off following Friday’s employment data however the stock indices failed to trade higher. Trade Balance from China over the weekend was poor with exports falling 3.3% while imports tumbled 19.9%, far worse than analysts had expected and highlighting deepening weakness in the world’s second largest economy.

dms 2-2 tsChart(1) S&P 500 and US Treasury 10 Yr Note with the RQ-DMS Risk-ON, Risk-OFF, Mixed and Conflict histogram for February 2nd through the 6th, 2015.

osbos-r 2-8Chart(2) Daily chart of the  S&P 500

After more than two years of development and testing both in beta and out-of-sample, last Thursday we unveiled the powerful new risk analytics, the @C-Kal histogram and the overbought/oversold and retracement indicators, the oBoS-R markers. We had a record attendance from our members and I want to take this opportunity to thank you. Everybody at RiosQuant is excited about how these new indicators may be your game changer for 2015. The chart above shows the oBoS-R markers at work on the S&P 500 daily chart(2).

Joe Rios

Founder – Rios Quantitative LLC


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Scheduled Economic Reports That May Have an Impact on the Markets


Day One               All Day                 G 20 Meetings

7:30 PM                AUD                       NAB business confidence

8:30 PM                CNY                        CPI



Day Two               All Day                  G 20 Meetings

4:30 AM               GBP                       Manufacturing Production

8:20 AM               USD                       FOMC Member                Lacker  Speaks

10:00 AM             GBP                       NIESR GDP estimate

10:00 AM             USD                       JOLTS Job Openings



All Day                  EUR                        Eurogroup Meetings

10:30 AM                                             Crude Oil Inventories

1:01 PM                USD                       10 Year Note Auction

7:30 PM                AUD                       Unemployment Rate



5:30 AM               GBP                       BOE Inflation Report And Gov. Carney Speaks

10:30 AM                                             Natural Gas Storage

5:30 PM                AUD                       RBA Gov. Stevens Speaks



8:30 AM               CAD                       Manufacturing Sales

10:00 AM             USD       Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment