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The Week Ahead in the Global Financial Markets

From the desk of Joe Rios

The three major benchmarks for the US including the S&P 500, 10 year treasury notes and the US dollar sold off significantly at the beginning of the week only to recover the losses by the end of the week. The correlations were not typical of what we have been seeing for the past several months. Rotation flows suggests the initial positioning was a selloff of US assets and a shift to foreign currencies. The most common market sentiment that we have been seeing has been risk on or risk off involving the bond, stock and currency markets. However last week’s price action may have a deeper meaning, but the market’s message is still not clear. The recent steep sudden selloff in German bunds, Japanese government bonds, US Treasuries and other global fixed income instruments suggest a potential liquidity problem may be surfacing. In the week ahead I will pay close attention to the intermarket relationship and I will focus on the correlations to help identify rotation flows. Even though last week’s market activity was challenging, we did managed to have a very rewarding and profitable week. Paying attention to the technicals along with correlation analysis helped us identify trading opportunities that offered low risk to high reward opportunities.

Today China cut interest rates for the third time in six months with a 25 basis point in the key one-year lending rate to 5.1% and the deposit rate to 2.25%. I will also pay attention to more data from China this week. The move in rates may help other stock markets, especially the emerging markets.

    – Joe Rios 


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All Day    EUR        Euro Group Meetings

7:00 AM   GBP        Official Bank Rate



4:30 AM   GBP        Manufacturing Production

5:30 AM   AUD        Annual Budget Release

10:00 AMUSD        JOLTS Job Openings

5:00 PM   NZD        Financial Stability Report



1:30 AM   CNY        Industrial Production

2:00 AM   EUR        German Preliminary GDP

4:30 AM   GBP        Average Earnings Index

5:30 AM   GBP        Inflation Report And Gov. Carney Speaks

8:30 AM   USD        Retail Sales

10:30 AMCL           Crude Oil Inventories

6:45 PM   NZD        Retail Sales



8:30 AM   USD        PPI And Unemployment Claims

10:30 AMNG          Natural Gas Storage



8:30 AM   CAD        Manufacturing Sales

10:00 AMUSD        Preliminary Uom Consumer Sentiment