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The Week Ahead In The Global Financial Markets

From the desk of Joe Rios

It was an exciting week in the global financial markets with the three main benchmarks continuing to trade in tight correlation mode. As mentioned in last week’s The Week Ahead, the expectation of volatility spiking came true when the US 10 Year Note futures broke out of a symmetric triangle and the S&P 500 broke down from a key support level. The US Dollar consolidated for most of the week, however on Friday the greenback pursued with an impressive bullish breakout following US Non-Farm employment data, continuing its previous trend. It proved prudent to focus on the US 10 Year Note futures as a leading indicator as it traded a step ahead of the other benchmarks for most of the week.

As you can see from the illustrations below the US 10 year note and S&P 500 finished the week at key levels. Can you notice the relationship between the benchmarks? Can you spot which market was the leading indicator? In the week ahead I will continue to focus on the 10 Year Note futures for insights for selecting markets poised for aggressive price action. The independents including Natural Gas and the Grains continued to consolidate. I will be looking for any potential break, to either direction. After the recent consolidation will we see short covering in the Grain market? Or trend continuation? The data calendar is light this week, however there are several speeches that have the potential to spark price action in the risk assets.

Joe Rios – Founder, Rios Quantitative LLC


correlations daily sept oct

Correlations Oct week 1

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10:00 AM             CAD       Ivey PMI

5:00 PM                NZD       NZIER Business Confidence

11:30 PM             AUD       RBA Rate Statement



Tentative             JPY         BOJ Press Conference

4:30 AM               GBP       Manufacturing Production

8:30 AM               CAD       Building Permits

10:00 AM             USD       JOLTS Job Openings

1:20 PM                USD       FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks

3:00 PM                USD       FOMC Member Dudley Speaks



8:15 AM               CAD       Housing Starts

10:30 AM                             Crude Oil Inventories

1:01 PM                USD       10 Year Bond Auction

2:00 PM                USD       FOMC Meeting Minutes

8:30 PM                AUD       Employment Change



7:00 AM               GBP       Official Bank Rate

Tentative             GBP       MPC Rate Statement

8:30 AM               USD       Unemployment Claims

10:30 AM                             Natural Gas Storage

11:00 AM             EUR        ECB President Draghi Speaks

All Day                  Day 1     G 20 Meetings

8:45 PM                AUD       RBA Assistant Gov. Edey Speaks



8:30 AM               CAD       Employment Change

All Day                  Day 1     IMF Meetings

All Day                  Day 2     G 20 Meetings